January 23, 2016

01/21/2016 Ukraine: Daily Highlights - The European Parliament approved the introduction of a visa-free regime for Ukraineм

The European Parliament approved the introduction of a visa-free regime for Ukraine
The European Parliament approved the introduction of a visa-free regime for Ukraine

01.21.2016 Daily Highlights by the Digests & Analytics Ukraine

Topics from Media and Social Networks

  • The European Parliament approved the introduction of a visa-free regime for Ukraine.
  • The Army might begin the transition to NATO standards in February.
  • Poroshenko believes that Ukraine would receive an IMF tranche next month.
  • Head of the Anti-Corruption Bureau Sytnyk denied media reports that the US is to allocate $1 billion to Ukraine in exchange for the resignation of Prosecutor General Shokin.

Key Events in Ukraine

  • Defense Minister Poltorak said that the dates of the seventh wave of mobilization depend on how many servicemen will be recruited to the contract service. He said that reservists database destroyed under President Yanukovych is being recovered by representatives of military offices going from door to door. According to the minister, the Army should be consolidated regardless of Russia's activities, and the Army reform planned to take three years would begin after its program is adopted by the National Security Council in February 2016. The structure of the Ministry is to be reorganized in line with NATO standards. Poltorak believes that the Army would be able to withstand the possible advance of the terrorist troops in Donbas. Head of the General Staff Muzhenko said that the NATO countries would increase the number of their advisers to prepare Ukrainian military personnel and continue to provide military and technical assistance. The granting of lethal weapons depends on the political decisions of the governments of individual countries.
  • According to the World Bank, Ukraine's GDP may grow by 1% in 2016. WB Country Director for Ukraine Fan said that the country should continue to implement reforms and restore the economy.
  • Finance Minister Yaresko said that the format of the restructuring of "Yanukovych’s debt" to Russia may be different from the previous agreements, but the terms of the offer would not be better than for other creditors.
  • National Bank has again slightly strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate, but the rate is still 5% lower than it was last week: 24.52 ₴/$ (-0.14 UAH), 26.71 ₴/€ (-0.19 UAH), 3.09 ₴/10 ₽ (-0.02 UAH). Cash dollars are sold at the rate of 26-26.5 UAH/$.

Ukraine at War

  • According to official reports, six soldiers were injured in the past day during the fighting in Donbas. Militants opened fire at Ukrainian position near Donetsk Aiport, Maryinka, Horlivka, and near Talakivka and Starohnativka in Mariupol direction. Intelligence reports about the transfer of the large amounts of manpower and equipment of the Russian occupation troops to Pervomaysk, Horlivka and Stakhanov, which creates two attack forces targeting Artemovsk.
  • Participant in Minsk negotiations Herashchenko said that the second reading of the amendments to the Constitution may only take place after the real implementation of the Minsk agreements by Russia and Russian-controlled militants.
  • Russia has once again blocked the extension of the OSCE mission mandate to control all the checkpoints on the Ukrainian-Russian border.
  • According to Donbas observers, the mobilization announced by the militants frustrated due to the reluctance of the locals to fight. Russia reinforces its border in Rostov region to prevent the defection of mercenaries and soldiers from Donbas.
  • OSCE Mission urged to simplify the procedure for crossing the demarcation line with the occupied territory of Donbass and to increase the number of checkpoints.
  • Deputy Chief Monitor of the Mission Hug said that if the attack on the OSCE and the restriction of observers’ movement by the militants continue, the Minsk process would be terminated.
  • NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Breedlove said that the tension in the war zone in Donbas has increased, while the number of heavy weapons used decreased.
  • Foreign Ministry condemned the arrest in absentia of the Crimean Tatar leader Dzhemilev by a Simferopol court in the occupied Crimea.

Ukraine and the World

  • The European Parliament adopted a resolution calling on the governing bodies of the European Union to proceed with the inclusion of Ukraine in the list of countries for which visa restrictions are canceled. MEPs ]expressed hope that the Ukrainian leadership would perform its commitments to fight corruption in Q1. In another resolution, the European Parliament called on the EU to abandon the implementation of the second stage of the Nord Stream pipeline, since it is contrary to the concept of diversifying energy sources, and to make the full use of Ukraine’s transit potential.
  • According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, trade turnover between Ukraine and Russia declined by 80% in 2015, and the trend would increase this year due to the introduction of mutual embargo.
  • German Chancellor Merkel rejected the idea of ​​limiting the number of refugees received annually to 200 thousand, as required by CSU party of the ruling coalition. Federal Minister of the Interior de Maizière said that border control introduced at the country’s borders until February 2016 may be extended indefinitely.
  • For the first time in 40 years, American oil tanker arrived to Europe after the removal of export restrictions by President Obama.
  • Despite the judicial proceedings in France against the Head of the IMF Lagarde, the Fund’s management nominated her for a second term. Analysts predict that she would keep her job.
  • IMF Chief Lagarde expressed confidence in a positive decision on continued funding of Ukraine and the allocation of the next tranche of the loan. President Poroshenko hopes that the IMF would provide $7 billion in February.
  • A London court suspects President Putin and FSB Chief Patrushev of ordering the murder of former FSB officer Litvinenko carried out in 2006 in the UK. The United States are not planning any actions against Russia in connection with the proceedings, but may take such steps in the future.
  • Dutch Prime Minister Rutte believes that less than two months are left to save the Schengen borders code, because the flow of refugees to Europe would increase dramatically with the end of the winter.
  • According to American financier Soros, Russia will have enough reserves for two years in an unfavorable economic environment, with its most difficult year to be in 2017.

The Trends


  • According to political analysts, Head of the Odessa Regional Administration Saakashvili is not in a hurry to create a new party, since he owes obligations to President Poroshenko. If the party is created, it will be leader-centered, with a limited number of party functionaries, as the "anti-corruption forums" have demonstrated. But even though the public demand to clean up corruption is very high, the "new anticorruptionists" can offer no mechanisms to resolve the current situation, as most of them belong to the party of power.
  • Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016 was released in Davos. Ukraine took 79th place in the list of 140 countries in the overall ranking, with 59th place by investment attractiveness and the last 140th place by banks reliability. Last week at his press conference, President Poroshenko called the Head of the NBU Hontareva the “best banker in the world.”

  • Presidential fraction in Parliament discusses new ministerial candidates within its quota for Cabinet rotation, but the final decision is still pending. First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Kovalchuk is considered as one of the candidates for the Vice-Prime Minister post. The Presidential team also intends to replace the Interior Minister Avakov appointed with the quota of the People’s Front party.
  • Former NBU Deputy Head Savchenko believes that the regulator must limit the presence of the Russian banks in the Ukrainian market, and links the hryvnia decline to Russian banks buying up foreign currency.

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